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Flash Poll: No Clear Winner in Monday Night's Debate

Not surprisingly, Republican respondents said Mitt Romney won and Democrats said Barack Obama won. But Democratic respondents were much stronger in their opinion.

 

Your view of Monday night’s presidential debate on foreign policy may come down to who you already supported for president.

A Patch flash poll of influential Republicans and Democrats in Georgia found that opinions on who won generally fell along party lines: Republicans thought Gov. Mitt Romney was the winner and Democrats thought President Barack Obama prevailed.

It was a strong contrast to the first time the candidates faced off on Oct. 3, when the consensus of both parties was that Obama looked bored or annoyed and that Romney succeeded in presenting himself as presidential.

Republican respondents said they felt Romney won the final debate, with 26.7 percent saying it was “by a wide margin” and 40 percent “by a slim margin.” Another 23.3 percent were neutral on the question and few Republicans gave the win to Obama.

Democrats also said their own candidate won Monday’s debate, but they were much stronger in their assessment, with 90.5 percent saying Obama won “by a wide margin” and 9.5 percent saying he won “by a slim margin.”

The flash poll of elected officials, candidates and activists is unscientific. Thirty Republicans and 21 Democrats took part.

Several Republican respondents said they thought Obama was aggressive and “disrespectful” in his tone, while they saw Romney as calm and in command of his arguments. Democratic respondents saw Romney as a flip-flopper who was loose with the facts.

Respondents in both parties predicted that the national media would declare Obama the winner, with 57 percent of Republicans and 86 percent of Democrats saying the president would get the nod of pundits.

Respondents in both parties were mixed on whether Monday night’s debate would help their candidate make a stronger showing in Georgia. No clear pattern emerged, but several respondents noted that Georgia remains a Red State that should be safe for Romney.

One Republican respondent predicted:

“Georgia will vote Romney, the nation will vote for Obama, the Republicans retain the House, the Democrats will retain the Senate by a slim margin. Get ready for 4 more years that look just like the last.”

What do you think? How much do the debates matter? Do you think Republicans will win Georgia by as wide a margin as they did in the 2008 presidential election?

Andrew October 25, 2012 at 12:52 AM
Georgia is a pro-Romney state.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 12:59 AM
In Colorado, Romney wins the support of white college graduates, with 49 percent support to Mr. Obama's 46 percent. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57488777/poll-romney-leads-in-colo-obama-in-va-wis/
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 01:01 AM
CBS poll from 2 days ago: ... it is a closer race among whites who have a college degree - Romney leads 50 to 45 percent with that group... http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57537319/poll-obama-romney-locked-in-tight-race/
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 01:06 AM
Gallup poll October 9-15 2012 Romney leads 61-39 among college grads http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx Nicer try on you propaganda attempts Stan
Patch of Midtown October 25, 2012 at 01:39 AM
Obamanaut = Obama + Astronaut? Andrew, it's ok to have another opinion and not be a 'total idiot'. You right and left wingers are taking your info-tainment too seriously. On Nov 7, one side will lose and they will think it's the end of the country and they'll spend the next four years complaining about everything that happens in great detail. The inverse will happen for the winner. Both sides will make their case and sell a lot of media in the process. I hear the same passioned plea from left wingers and their opponents are 'total idiots' too. Lighten up. This is the nature of democracy. It's gonna be alright.
Stan October 25, 2012 at 01:39 AM
Actually if you look at my statement I said college graduates. You are refuting it with polls talking about just white college graduates. Maybe you think those other folks shouldn't be able to vote. When total college grads are counted there a clear majority for Obama, and yes Romney voters tend to be people with less education. In fact the higher the education level the more likely the voter will be for Obama. Makes you wonder, huh.
Mary Lou October 25, 2012 at 01:45 AM
@Todd Glaysher 9:54 am on Wednesday, October 24, 2012 No such thing as true "Independents". Just because someone is registered as an Independent doesn mean they are. Every person leans one way and thats the way they vote 99.99% of the time. Ive yet to met someone who votes between the two parties over their lifetime. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well then- it really doesn't matter whatever incorrect formulation you think your on to for yourself there, I have voted cross party lines in quite a few elections. . And yourself? what is your voting record?
Patch of Midtown October 25, 2012 at 01:45 AM
Interesting quote from the 538 blog today... "According to Brandon Adams, a professional poker player and a teaching fellow at Harvard, Intrade’s prices are not necessarily considered more reliable by professional gamblers. Mr. Adams says that Betfair and the sports book Pinnacle, both of which put Mr. Obama’s odds at about 63 percent as of early Wednesday morning, feature more sophisticated market participants." Today's posting has a really good indepth analysis of the history and effectiveness of market based predictive models.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 06:36 AM
Stan, the Gallup poll does not designate a race and it has Romney up by 61-39 which is a very clear majority for ROMNEY. http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 06:47 AM
Betfair has never accepted customers and/or credit card numbers from the United States. Pinnacle is another foreign company. Since when is a poker player (ranked 69th) the leading authority on betting odds?
Todd G October 25, 2012 at 11:45 AM
I was referring to the Gen Election. Unless your voiting record is @ 50/50 your not an independent. And anyone who dosnt have their mind made up bu now needs to see a shrink. Its not that difficult a decison to make no matter what they say.... Btw: I wasnt referring to you per see...just making a comment on the whole notion of "true Indendents".
Patch of Midtown October 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM
Andrew, I still don't understand your logic that since Americans are not able to quickly bet on the election, then the results are completely discounted. I thought you would be a 'free market is best' type. There is no prediction model that is going to be 100% accurate. It's a fair conversation to analyze the past effectiveness of the markets. Discussing the statistical research of a Harvard fellow gets a little more merit than an anonymous bloggers 'Irish bookies' logic.
Pete October 25, 2012 at 01:12 PM
Hence the reason for a 4 party system - this way, you can have your extremists, and your moderates, and would actually see some sort of compromise. Also interesting since surveys have shown most Americans are "social liberal fiscally conservative", yet have to vote for a candidate that is extreme in one aspect or another
Pete October 25, 2012 at 01:19 PM
@ Todd - Actually I am a TRUE independent - I voted D I R R D the last 5, and more than likely will go independent again this time, so I would probably qualify based on your 50/50 rule... Nice to meet you!
Bruce Mitchell October 25, 2012 at 04:57 PM
Calm down mr. bla bla, unfortunately you can only vote once in this election, unless you engage in voter fraud. You can, however continue to post as many times as you want here. Excuse me. I have to go back to work now.
Stan October 25, 2012 at 05:14 PM
Well that's just one poll. If you still believe here is something else you can chew on. Take a look at the states based on educational performance and compare it to a list of redstates versus blue states. Almost all the states with poor educational performance are redstates supporting Romney.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 09:24 PM
The logic is that just about every country out there wants the US to reelect Obama. They know he is destroying America and with each notch we drop they go up a notch http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Rest-of-the-world-bar-Pakistan-supports-Barack-Obama-in-2012-presidential-race-175767891.html
Matt Test October 25, 2012 at 09:26 PM
great discussion!
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 09:29 PM
Registered Democrats are slightly more likely to claim they are “independents” than people who are registered Republicans. In the 5-day, industry-standard poll, 80 percent of people who claimed to be Republicans were verified as actually being registered Republicans in a national voter information database. Among those found to be registered Democrats, only 76 percent said that they were Democrats. Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/matthew-sheffield/2012/10/09/study-poll-respondents-more-likely-lie-about-voter-registration-r#ixzz2ALgDNZRe
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 09:37 PM
Even the hard left leaning Letterman called out Obama on his lies: DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST: Here's what upset me last night, this playing fast and loose with facts. And the President Obama cites the op-ed piece that Romney wrote about Detroit, “Let them go bankrupt, let them go bankrupt,” and last night he brings it up again. “Oh, no, Governor, you said let them go bankrupt, blah blah blah, let them go bankrupt.” And Mitt said, “No, no, check the thing, check the thing, check the thing.” Now, I don't care whether you're Republican or Democrat, you want your president to be telling the truth; you want the contender to be lying. And so what we found out today or soon thereafter that, in fact, the President Obama was not telling the truth about what was excerpted from that op-ed piece. I felt discouraged.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 09:46 PM
Stan are you saying that the poll does not count because you don't agree with it? Here are school stats and Georgia is number 7 which is way ahead of California and Illinois. http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2012/16src.h31.html
Stan October 25, 2012 at 09:59 PM
Where do you get your glasses. Georgia 7th best in the country in education, take another look its really 47th. Look at recognized test scores Georgia will be near bottom along the other redstates.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 10:14 PM
Stan you don't need glasses too read the stats. Look on the right side. http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2012/16src.h31.html
Stan October 25, 2012 at 10:22 PM
The source you are quoting for Georgia is based on a number of factors unrelated to actual educational performance. When looking at things like graduation rates, test scores, etc., Georgia is near the bottom. For example Georgia ranks 47th in SAT scores for 2012.
Stan October 25, 2012 at 10:29 PM
The report you reference is based on a number of factors but isn't talking about overall educational performance. When you look at things like test scores, graduation rates,etc. Georgia ranks near the bottom. For example Georgia ranks 47th in 2012 SAT scores.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 10:47 PM
If you look at the figures 80% of students take the SAT in Georgia while the leaders on the SAT have 5%, 7%, and 3% of students taking the test. http://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/sat-scores-by-state-2011 Here is an article about GA being number 7: http://blogs.ajc.com/get-schooled-blog/2012/01/12/georgia-earns-a-7th-place-ranking-nice-to-see-us-up-there-with-new-york-and-massachusetts-for-a-change/
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 10:51 PM
Even the liberal Huffington Post has Georgia at number 19 which is way ahead of California (34): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/11/state-education-rankings-_n_894528.html
Stan October 25, 2012 at 10:57 PM
Read your article in the AJC a little closer, Georgia gets an F for results. Pick any accepted standards for judging performance and Georgia is near the bottom. If you want to be denial and put lipstick on this pig go ahead.
Andrew October 25, 2012 at 11:20 PM
If you go back to the source and click on Ga you can plainly see no F's were given http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2012/16src.h31.html. I posted numerous links while you posting your opinion. Talk without proof is cheap. I know you want to see Georgia look bad but it is not so.
Sharpie November 05, 2012 at 02:35 PM
"Support for Kill List and NDAA make Obama and Romney Unfit for Office" http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening-liberty/2012/nov/2/support-kill-list-and-ndaa-make-obama-and-romney-u/ See if there is a clear winner to our Presidential Election 2012. Make a special note to watch the Free and Equal Election Debate between third party Presidential candidates, Gov. Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Dr. Jill Stein (Green), to be aired tonight on Monday evening, Nov. 5th from 9:00 - 10:30 pm Eastern Time. Perform a worthwhile civic duty, and be certain to listen in on this historic debate so that you can make an informed decision on voting day. Third party candidates who will be on the ballot in most states deserve to be heard. http://freeandequal.org/?v=1

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